A mere two months ago when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
